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June 8, 2005

Is the Bubble Back?

Marc Goldberg wonders, “Is the bubble back?” While it is always difficult to discern the size of a storm from the inside, we should consider a few questions:

Are venture deal median prices increasing? Yes.

Are the newspapers filled with stories about Silicon Valley entrepreneurs looking to get even richer? Yes.

Have we seen recent high-profile triple-digit acquisitions? Yes.

Are internet companies’ stock prices rivaling “traditional” media companies’? Yes.

But...

Has the Nasdaq gone through the roof in the past few months? No.

Is there so much hysteria that MBAs are leaving their cushy consulting jobs in droves to start companies? No.

Have we lost a sense of grounding that we’re proposing new valuation metrics? No.

Is everyone partying like it’s 1999? Not yet.

No, I would argue that the bubble isn’t back just yet, though Jeff Bussgang wonders if it is coming. Yes, I agree that there is a lot of excitement in the air, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that we are in or are entering a bubble.

I am not saying that there aren’t investments currently being made with unrealistic expectations. Nor am I saying that companies are being funded at extremely lofty prices. Nor am I saying that there are companies being funded that won’t survive. It’s all part of the business.

What we’re in is a rejuvenation. After a cold winter, the internet is back. And in comparison to a couple years ago, things feel great. Heidi Roizen announces this fact in none other than a podcast. It’s indeed a new era, but not a bubble - yet.

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